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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd